It’s time for my weekly look at the Bitcoin (BTC) price action for the week and try to make some sense of it all, and maybe make a prediction or two. It’s been an essentially sideways week, but we are holding between two pretty key points, so it’s not all that surprising.
For the usual disclosure, I am not a financial advisor, I don’t even work in finance at all. My day job is as a telecommunications software engineer. Treat everything you read here as some educational resources and not financial advice.
Looking at the price charts we had a very sideways week, with the price consolidating between $50.000 and the 20 day EMA. It’s not really all that surprising that we find ourselves having the price do this after a massive 73% jump from our bottom on 21 July to what we’ll call the current peak back on 23 August. The market needs a little bit of a cool off after that kind of a movement.
The fact that we are holding above out 20 day EMA is also a pretty good sign, we haven’t been able to muster up the momentum to push up past out resistance, but we also have some pretty solid support happening that doesn’t want the price to get below the average.
The ATR is dipping down, confirming the price is stabilizing and the volatility is falling off, with the price basically being within a $2071 price range, which is less than 5% at the current price. We also still have some pretty good spacing between our EMAs, so we haven’t yet broken out of the uptrend from those indicators either.
Volumes have been pretty steady in the last week, with the 24 hour volume currently sitting at about $39 billion dollars, so trading has been relatively healthy as well, and we haven’t seen any drying up of market action.
Our RSI has also bounced off the center line and is starting to move back up towards the upper part of the range, but far from hitting over bought territory, so we are still getting a good solid buy signal coming off of that indicator as well.
Looking at the dominance chart, we can see that a lot of money has been moving out of Bitcoin and into the alt markets, lead by some pretty beefy runs by Ethereum and Cardano, with a lot of help from some of the lower cap coins getting some major moves like Polkadot.
If we can continue to see this to go down when the price of Bitcoin starts pumping again, we could be in for a very nice alt season.
I’m going to start this weeks prediction with what I think is not going to happen. Traditionally, September has been a bloody month in the crypto game, with the markets losing a large amount over the month. I think this year will be different, as we had a pretty bearish summer, and I’m not so sure the market is ready to go through that again so soon. It’s possible, and if we see the current price lose it’s support off the EMA and we get a big move downward, that would likely cause the price to revert and drop down back to to $30,000 range. I can’t see us dropping much lower than that if we do see the September fall.
What I think is a more likely scenario is that the price continues to consolidate in this range for a few more days until we get some form of market news that gives us a push up and past the $50,000 price. Once that happens, I think we’ll be able to pick up some pretty good momentum and move us quickly towards my next target line at $56,000, where I think we’ll see the next bit of resistance on our way back up.
Let’s hope for some good positive news here soon, and that I am correct that it kicks us back up the price charts.
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